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I am learning Spanish. I am active in such languages learning website as Italki and LiveMocha. I am helping my friends learn English with fun.

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Hong Kong population is aging 香港人口不断老化  

2010-01-03 03:41:00|  分类: 香港 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Hong Kong population is aging 香港人口不断老化 - brandonzin - Brandon Zin Blog

It is a wellknown fact that the Hong Kong population has one of the highest life expectancy rates in the world. Yet it has one of the lowest fertility rates. In simple terms the HK population is getting older and older.

The HK Council of Social Service in its June 2009 publication summarized the situation as follows:

  • The Hong Kong population is aging. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over has increased. At the mid of 2008, the population of elderly persons aged above 65 is 12.6% (0.88 million) of the total population in HK. It is estimated that in 2016 and 2033, the percentage will increase to 14% and 27% respectively.
  • Our seniors are living much longer than before. In 2005, the population of elderly persons aged 75 or above was around 0.36 million, about 45% of the elderly population. In 2011, the number will increase to 420,000, which is estimated to be 48% of the elderly population. In 2006, life expectancy of male was 79.5 years of age, and the figure for female was 85.6 years of age. In 2033, the figures are expected to increase to 82.7 and 88.3 respectively.
  • In 2006, the elderly dependency ratio is 168, i.e. every 1,000 employed persons has to raise 168 elderly persons aged 65 or above. As the elderly population has been increasing and the birth rate is dropping, the figures are expected to increase to 282 in 2023 and 428 in 2033.

In a paper published by International Monetary Fund in 2006 on the subject, it concluded that:

"without a change in policies, aging could adversely affect HK's growth and living standards. While higher labor productivity growth and increased migration of younger skilled workers from the Chinese mainland, would attenuate the economic impact of aging, they would not offset it fully. Aging will also put pressure on public finances, particularly as a result of rising health care costs. There is a relatively narrow window of opportunity to implement policies to lessen the impact of aging, given that the demographic effects could start setting in as early as 2015 when the working population’s support ratio peaks. In recent years, the Hong Kong SAR authorities have been focusing on policies that could help limit the fiscal impact of aging, including continued expenditure restraint on non-age-sensitive areas, reform of health care financing (including introducing private health insurance system), and tax reforms."

相信大家知道香港人均寿命在世界上是其中一个最高的地方,但生育率差不多是最低,简单来说香港人口越来越老化。

以下是香港服务联会在2009年6月发出有关报告:

  • 长者一般指65岁以上的人口。这也是现时香港法定的退休年龄。香港的人口正不断老化。在2008年中,65岁以上的长者占全港人口的12.6% (88万人),预计至2016年及2033年,将会分别上升至占总人口的14% 和27%。 
  • 长者人口亦逐渐老化。在2005年,75岁老人约有36万,占长者人口约45%。至2011年,将增至42万人,估计占当时长者人口48%。在2006年,男性的预期寿命是79.5岁,女性则是85.6岁;至2033年,预计会分别上升至82.5岁及88岁。 
  • 2006年的老年抚养率为168,即每1,000名劳动人口需要抚养168位65岁或以上的长者。随着长者人口不断上升,而出生率则持续下跌,预期老年抚养率会急剧上升至2023年的282及2033年的428。

国际货币基金组织2006年出版关于这个问题的文件结论是:

香港如不改变政策,人口老化会影响增长和生活水平。虽然更高的劳动生产率的增长和来自祖国大陆的年轻技术工人移民增加,将减轻人口老化对经济的影响,但两者不会完全抵消。由于人口老化医疗成本上升特别 公共财政带来压力。现在看不到有什么方案可以减轻老化对社会的影响,可预见2015年时人口因素开始浮现,到时劳动人口对老年抚养率将达到高峰。近年来,香港特区当局一直把注意力集中在政策降低人口老龄化对财政的影响,包括对非年龄敏感开支采取节约措施, 医疗融资改革(包括引入私人健康保险制度),以及税制改革

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http://bzin1.weebly.com for learning English
http://bzin2.weebly.com for blogging with English and Spanish speakers
http://brandonzin.wordpress.com similar blog as this one but hosted at Wordpress

  


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